DEMO · SIMULATED TELEMETRY · NOT OPERATIONAL · PHASE I R2O RESEARCH CONCEPT
Sunfall Systems SUNFALL SYSTEMS // HELIOS Space Weather R2O · LEO Radiation Impact Mapping
PHASE I CONCEPT // STANDBY FEED: SIMULATED (ACE/GOES ARCHITECTURE) 00:00:00 UTC

NASA SBIR/STTR · Space Weather R2O2R

Predictive Solar Radiation Impact Mapping for LEO Satellites.

A Phase I research concept for ingesting L1 solar wind and GOES proton flux data, predicting Van Allen belt boundary shifts, and projecting orbit-specific radiation exposure windows for commercial LEO operators.

The Engineering Challenge

During Solar Particle Events (SPEs), coronal mass ejections drive high-energy protons (>10 MeV) into the ionosphere and thermosphere. When these protons strike LEO spacecraft, they cause Single Event Effects (SEEs). A proton can flip a single bit in a memory chip, corrupting software, or trigger a latch-up, a short circuit that can permanently damage the flight computer if the system isn't shut down in time. Operators need to know when and where their specific orbital path intersects the proton stream: not that a storm is coming, but the exact minute their satellite crosses into elevated-risk radiation.

ORBIT INTERSECTION ENGINE // PHASE I DEMO LEO · 540 km
IDLE
AZ 184.2°
EL −12.4°
L-SHELL BOUNDARY (540KM): L 4.8 · NOMINAL
TRACK NOMINAL
540 KM · INC 97.4°
SAT-4820 // INC: 97.4° // RAAN: 112.5° // STATE: NOMINAL · SAT-4821 // INC: 97.4° // RAAN: 232.1° // STATE: NOMINAL · SAT-4822 // INC: 97.5° // RAAN: 351.8° // STATE: NOMINAL
[SUNFALL] AWAITING STORM REPLAY INITIALIZATION.

Phase I Research Pipeline

Three-Step Processing Architecture

01

Data Ingestion

Ingest real-time heliophysics streams from ACE and DSCOVR (L1 Lagrange point) and GOES proton flux channels (>10 MeV, >100 MeV). Normalize solar wind velocity, Bz, Dst, and proton flux into a unified time-series input schema.

02

Ionospheric Attenuation Model

Train a time-series model (LSTM baseline; physics-informed alternative TBD with research partner) to predict ionospheric compression and Van Allen belt boundary shifts from incoming L1 metrics. Output: L-shell boundary position vs. time at target altitude.

03

Orbital Intersection Engine

Propagate commercial LEO satellite ephemerides (INC/RAAN) against the predicted radiation envelope. Flag the UTC minute each spacecraft crosses an elevated SEE-risk zone so operators can schedule safe-mode entry.

Phase I Proof of Concept

Research Objectives & Success Criteria

A

Latency Feasibility

Demonstrate end-to-end processing, from L1 data ingest through orbit intersection alert, in under 120 seconds. Solar wind transit from L1 provides a ~30 to 60 minute operational window, so the model must run fast enough to be actionable.

Target: p95 pipeline latency < 120 s

B

Predictive Accuracy

Validate belt boundary predictions against historical solar storm events (May 2024 G5 storm baseline). Measure temporal and spatial agreement between model output and observed GOES flux / L-shell profiles.

Target: > 90% agreement on peak radiation zone timing

C

Operator Interface

Deliver a lightweight web dashboard (this demo) that renders predicted belt geometry shifts and flags specific orbital penetration windows for LEO assets.

Target: functional API/UI pipeline with alert schema

Archive

Concept Briefs

Unclassified

Predictive LEO Radiation Attenuation

Phase I concept brief · PDF

Transitioning NASA Data to Commercial Space Operations

Phase I concept summary · PDF